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Discussion in 'In the Media' started by Ra, Dec 12, 2010.

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ColiBreh1 Well-Known Member
https://twitter.com/SeekingAlpha/status/1118153712097202178

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254648-netflix-game-thrones-problem

Summary

While the final season of “Game of Thrones” could be seen as more of a problem for HBO, the real problem may be more for streaming rivals, namely Netflix.

Part of “Thrones” success is that it is a high profile weekly episodic series which fuels water cooler buzz and essentially forces the majority of viewers to watch live.

Netflix may have hit programs, but by remaining so stringent to the “batch” model, they are losing that weekly blitz which is what helped “Thrones” rise to new levels.

Netflix is especially vulnerable to this as Hulu and Amazon have figured out ways around that problem which has helped result in transforming key award nominations into key award wins.

While “Thrones” will leave a void for HBO, the network will catch fire again with another new series, and when it does, it’ll again have be the ultimate strategic advantage. time.

As tempting as it would be to make a bold statement like “Winter Is Coming” for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), it just isn’t true. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t problem points that investors should keep an eye on, and believe it or not HBO’s (NYSE:T) Game of Thrones is one of them.

Yes, the long-running series is embarking on its swan-song season and the song of fire and ice is most definitely coming to an end in a few weeks - but that’s also the point. Game of Thrones was a juggernaut hit for HBO across everything from boosting subscriber counts to pulling in key award wins. Investors will clearly miss the battle for the Iron Throne and it will be hard for any prequel/sequel series to live up to the hype of the original. Still, it’s worth exploring why that is and why it hurts a company like Netflix more than HBO.

As many will attest Thrones was popcorn-TV at its finest and more importantly appointment viewing. It may be safe to say that there is no other show on TV that is more “must-see LIVE” than this one – and that includes The Walking Dead which many believe has lost a step in recent years.

Regardless, it’s safe to say you miss a new episode of Thrones at your own peril. This season characters are likely to be dispatched at a record rate, and if you aren’t watching live, good luck staying spoiler-free – you’ll need it.

And again, that’s the point – Thrones has thrived because it was water cooler TV in an era where water cooler TV is becoming harder and harder to achieve. Whether it was your favorite character or most despised villain being killed off, brought back to life or placed in some sort of new danger, we watched and we talked – rinse and repeat.

There is no show on Netflix that has that same buzz.

Now before the Netflix diehards try to refute that - think about it for a second. Netflix has had major hits in House of Cards, Orange Is The New Black, 13 Reasons Why, etc., but the only one that has ever come close to “we need to talk about this instantly” status is Stranger Things – and even then it is not consistent.

That’s the problem with the all-at-once binge watch – you have one big media push at the beginning and then residual bumps here and there creating a stop and start method. For Thrones, even its ratings – which make little difference since the company trades in subscribers – becomes a big deal and that again fuels the momentum.

The batch-model also means fans don’t know where someone else is in the process of watching and you don’t want to run the risk of spoiling a big twist so the conversation lessens. Yet, that type of buzz is why Thrones became what it became, and that begs the question, is Game of Thrones the last show we’ll watch together?

That question first smartly posed by Vulture earlier this month makes sense in this binge-first society – however, I wouldn’t count out HBO to hatch another dragon of its own. Investors have steadily watched HBO become the crown jewel of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) over the last few years and it’s that type of success that ultimately led to the acquisition by AT&T. Remember HBO carried Time Warner when none of its other divisions were coming close and Warner Bros. itself was mired in its defective DC universe of films.

And at the center was Game of Thrones. Even when the show was on one of its legendary extended hiatuses, it was still there. It was a sleeping giant that everyone knew would awaken with a roar. Netflix just doesn’t have that type of program… and that’s a problem.

And it’s not from lack of trying either (clearly).

Netflix does have its big hits and its instant-conversation starters, but by remaining so steadfast in its “all-at-once model”, it’s hurting the long-term possibilities for shareholders and that’s expanding out into the marketplace. And I don’t want to hear the stock is trading for triple digits – great, I’m happy for those investors – but you're short-sighted if you think that will ALWAYS be the case.

I also want to be clear because it merits repeating – the end is NOT near for Netflix. My point is investors just can’t get to comfortable because like with any company operating at that high of a level, there are few areas of concern.

Here it’s that Netflix’s competition is evolving – even the free-to-watch Pluto TV is making its mark in the space (courtesy of Viacom). And I’m also not saying Netflix’s “binge-model” is a bad idea, I’m just saying some flexibility helps.

Look at Hulu which solved their water-cooler problem with The Handmaid’s Tale by releasing a batch of episodes to start and then one-per-week. Or Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) which may keep the batch-model but strategically drops a priority show like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel during the holidays where people are more likely to binge–watch shows (plus Maisel isn’t exactly offing characters left and right, so the spoilers are minimum).

And to those that say it doesn’t have an effect? Both of those shows and Thrones have won top honors at the Emmys over the last few years while Netflix has still not been able to break through there. Nominations are one thing, but you can’t tell me it doesn’t irk company executives and investors that the first trailblazer in streaming TV is the only one of the big three not to take home the top prize.

For how much Netflix spends (of investor money) on award campaigns, it has to be a thorn in its side as for them, HBO, Hulu, Amazon and even Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) – it’s all about prestige and bragging rights. While Netflix broke through the wall, it’s Hulu and Amazon who have enjoyed the spoils thus far.

Last week the buzz leading up to the Thrones premiere was deafening and it was everywhere – and it will stay amplified right up until its May finale. Investors need to remember that when making their streaming investments because even without the Emmy-winning Goliath, the now AT&T juggernaut still has trick or two to play – and one that comes with the ultimate strategic advantage… time.
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ColiBreh1, Apr 16, 2019

#10921
- Informative x 1
- List
Thump Well-Known Member
ColiBreh1 said: ↑

Click to expand...

GOT hit a lot of beats that resonate with people; sex, violence, romance, sex, mystery, tragedy, sex, humor, intrigue, tits, and the "wow" factor. they also found a unique balance between darkness and hope, it wasn't gritty and somber for the sake of being gritty and somber, which is a mistake a lot of modern fantasy and sci-fi shows make these days.

Most of the shows featured in that video aren't designed to give the audience what GOT managed to pull off. GOT was also smart enough to lean into human interaction and character development instead of getting bogged down in the fabric of the fantasy.

I always like fantasy and sci-fi but I don't have high hopes any of those shows (except maybe the prequel) will come close to replacing GOT.

Last edited: Apr 16, 2019

Thump, Apr 16, 2019

#10922
- Like x 3
- List
ColiBreh1 Well-Known Member

ColiBreh1 said: ↑

Click to expand...

Thump said: ↑

GOT hit a lot of beats that resonate with people; sex, violence, romance, sex, mystery, tragedy, sex, humor, intrigue, tits, and the "wow" factor. they also found a unique balance between darkness and hope, it wasn't gritty and somber for the sake of being gritty and somber, which is a mistake a lot of modern fantasy and sci-fi shows make these days.

Most of the shows featured in that video aren't designed to give the audience what GOT managed to pull off. GOT was also smart enough to lean into human interaction and character development instead of getting bogged down in the fabric of the fantasy.

I always like fantasy and sci-fi but I don't have high hopes any of those shows (except maybe the prequel) will come close to replacing GOT.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I feel Amazon completely wasted money for the big deal they signed with Warner Bros. to do the "Lord of the Rings" TV show. They clearly didn't understand why GoT is so Popular & how different LotR is from ASOIAF.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LotR TV show never gets off the ground, especially since Amazon also did a deal to do a TV show on "The Wheel of Time" books.

ColiBreh1, Apr 16, 2019

#10923
qaz1 Well-Known Member
Thump said: ↑

GOT hit a lot of beats that resonate with people; sex, violence, romance, sex, mystery, tragedy, sex, humor, intrigue, tits, and the "wow" factor. they also found a unique balance between darkness and hope, it wasn't gritty and somber for the sake of being gritty and somber, which is a mistake a lot of modern fantasy and sci-fi shows make these days.

Most of the shows featured in that video aren't designed to give the audience what GOT managed to pull off. GOT was also smart enough to lean into human interaction and character development instead of getting bogged down in the fabric of the fantasy.

I always like fantasy and sci-fi but I don't have high hopes any of those shows (except maybe the prequel) will come close to replacing GOT.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think the copycats would be better served going in a largely different direction. Staying too close to the Game of Thrones model will only invite comparison, and that almost *can't* end well for the new show.

qaz1, Apr 16, 2019

#10924
- Like x 2
- List
Thump Well-Known Member
Just a heads-up there are leaked Avengers Endgame images and plot detail circulating online, (apparently there was a pre-screening somewhere and somebody snuck in a camera) the images and info are very spoiler heavy, so be careful if you don't want the movie ruined for you before next week.

Needless to say please don't post any spoilers here, thanks.

Thump, Apr 16, 2019

#10925
- Informative x 1
- List
darkcurry Well-Known Member
ColiBreh1 said: ↑

Click to expand...

Thump said: ↑

GOT hit a lot of beats that resonate with people; sex, violence, romance, sex, mystery, tragedy, sex, humor, intrigue, tits, and the "wow" factor. they also found a unique balance between darkness and hope, it wasn't gritty and somber for the sake of being gritty and somber, which is a mistake a lot of modern fantasy and sci-fi shows make these days.

Most of the shows featured in that video aren't designed to give the audience what GOT managed to pull off. GOT was also smart enough to lean into human interaction and character development instead of getting bogged down in the fabric of the fantasy.

I always like fantasy and sci-fi but I don't have high hopes any of those shows (except maybe the prequel) will come close to replacing GOT.
Click to expand...

ColiBreh1 said: ↑

Yeah, I feel Amazon completely wasted money for the big deal they signed with Warner Bros. to do the "Lord of the Rings" TV show. They clearly didn't understand why GoT is so Popular & how different LotR is from ASOIAF.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LotR TV show never gets off the ground, especially since Amazon also did a deal to do a TV show on "The Wheel of Time" books.
Click to expand...

And one of the biggest things is that GoT DIDN'T copy anyone. Something those in the entertainment industry still hasn't learned. They also let it grew and sprout I saw the ratings for the first 2 seasons of Game Of Thrones and they weren't as big as these last two seasons.

But some of these streaming and TV networks have their own big hits. Netflix has Stranger Things, Haunting Of Hill House, Black Mirror, ect. (But one of their problems are they will abruptly cancel a show for no reason they want to tell you.)

Amazon Prime has that Hanna hit on their hands right now.

Starz has Power and American Gods

It's good to be original instead of just copying and just let these things grow. Instead of always looking for that homerun right out of the gates.

darkcurry, Apr 16, 2019

#10926
- Like x 1
- List
qaz1 Well-Known Member

Thump said: ↑

Just a heads-up there are leaked Avengers Endgame images and plot detail circulating online, (apparently there was a pre-screening somewhere and somebody snuck in a camera) the images and info are very spoiler heavy, so be careful if you don't want the movie ruined for you before next week.

Needless to say please don't post any spoilers here, thanks.
Click to expand...

THIS!!!^ Thanks for the heads up, @Thump .

PLEASE don't post spoilers here, at least not without adding the spoiler tags.

qaz1, Apr 16, 2019

#10927
SilverSmith Well-Known Member

Chambers is Netflix's newest horror series starring Uma Thurman, Tony Goldwyn, and newcomer Sivan Alyra Rose.

SilverSmith, Apr 17, 2019

#10928
meowkittenmeow Well-Known Member

SilverSmith said: ↑

Chambers is Netflix's newest horror series starring Uma Thurman, Tony Goldwyn, and newcomer Sivan Alyra Rose.

Click to expand...

I will watch this

meowkittenmeow, Apr 17, 2019

#10929
darkcurry Well-Known Member

SilverSmith said: ↑

Chambers is Netflix's newest horror series starring Uma Thurman, Tony Goldwyn, and newcomer Sivan Alyra Rose.

Click to expand...

meowkittenmeow said: ↑

I will watch this
Click to expand...

Looks interesting.

darkcurry, Apr 17, 2019

#10930
ColiBreh1 Well-Known Member
The CW dropped a 2nd full trailer for the upcoming 6th season of "The 100" today:

ColiBreh1, Apr 17, 2019

#10931
- Informative x 1
- List
SilverSmith Well-Known Member
Here's a first look at DC Universe's Swamp Thing in this new teaser.

SilverSmith, Apr 18, 2019

#10932
- Like x 2
- List
darkcurry Well-Known Member
The Boys (Amazon) Trailer #2

darkcurry, Apr 18, 2019

#10933
- Like x 4
- List
ColiBreh1 Well-Known Member

Fox just cancelled "The Gifted": https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/gifted-rel-canceled-at-fox-1202943

ColiBreh1, Apr 18, 2019

#10934
darkcurry Well-Known Member

ColiBreh1 said: ↑

Fox just cancelled "The Gifted": https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/gifted-rel-canceled-at-fox-1202943
Click to expand...

‘The Gifted’ Canceled By Fox After 2 Seasons, Marvel Drama Could Potentially Find New Home At Disney

https://deadline.com/2019/04/the-gi...598063/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

This seems more likely. So we are still likely to have season 3.

Or what I think would be more creative is to put it on Freeform after Cloak and Dagger on thursdays.

darkcurry, Apr 18, 2019

#10935
SilverSmith Well-Known Member

20th Century Fox has just released what's being billed as the "final" trailer for its Dark Phoenix.

SilverSmith, Apr 18, 2019

#10936
qaz1 Well-Known Member
darkcurry said: ↑

The Boys (Amazon) Trailer #2

Click to expand...

Looks like IR at 1:25, but I still don't think I can ever watch this show.

qaz1, Apr 18, 2019

#10937
- Like x 1
- List
The Dark King Well-Known Member
darkcurry said: ↑

The Boys (Amazon) Trailer #2

Click to expand...

I'm intrigued. I'll check it out

The Dark King, Apr 18, 2019

#10938
- Like x 1
- List
SilverSmith Well-Known Member
Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham reprise their roles as Luke Hobbs and Deckard Shaw in Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw. Below is the official trailer for ya'll.

SilverSmith, Apr 18, 2019

#10939
- Like x 2
- List
SilverSmith Well-Known Member

Following yesterday’s Shao Kahn reveal trailer and Nintendo Switch gameplay, Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment and NetherRealm Studios have now released the official Mortal Kombat 11 launch clip.

SilverSmith, Apr 18, 2019

#10940

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