K
Well-Known Member
CRAZY!! Still working full time plus, a few weeks till end of grad school (if it doesn't get extended), submitted portfolio to state last week, testing on Saturday. I barely know my own name.
Covid-19 Central
- Thread starter Madeleine
- Start date
CRAZY!! Still working full time plus, a few weeks till end of grad school (if it doesn't get extended), submitted portfolio to state last week, testing on Saturday. I barely know my own name.
Bliss
Well-Known Member
Grip or not, why is our country shut down?
Never in the history of this country for that matter has everything been shut down, because of a virus.
61 million Americans contracted the H1N1 and we didn't shut the country down.
274,000 Americans were hospitalized, and we didn't shut the country down.
12,500 deaths, and no shut down.
What the hell? With those numbers, how can you even justify our country shutting down today?
if New York wants to shut down, fine, let them, but the rest of the country does not need to shut down.
We can't continue to live this way.
Bliss
Well-Known Member
Or, extending the quarantine will ensure people won't continue to live, no?
If we don't develop herd immunity this is just prolonging the inevitable. The only way viruses die off is through immunity or vaccine.
I wonder also, are we not creating a scenerio where we will soon be a danger to each other, because, just like we should play in dirt and shouldn't use too much antibacterial soap or antibiotics, staying away from each other could ultimately be a health threat once we begin intermingling again due to a lack of human exposure.
Bliss
Well-Known Member
Epidemiologist: Coronavirus could be 'exterminated' if lockdowns lifted
Excerpt:
Wittkowski said the only thing that stops respiratory diseases is herd immunity:
"...What happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time," he explained. "And I don't see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary."
" ...About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms"...
"... I'm not paid by the government, so I'm entitled to actually do science..."
Explanation here:
https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemi...BaBy0iKzWQ8axiJgucmzGc6tohoczIKD7WOuroNFq65ao
Excerpt:
Wittkowski said the only thing that stops respiratory diseases is herd immunity:
"...What happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time," he explained. "And I don't see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary."
" ...About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms"...
"... I'm not paid by the government, so I'm entitled to actually do science..."
Explanation here:
https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemi...BaBy0iKzWQ8axiJgucmzGc6tohoczIKD7WOuroNFq65ao
Thump
Well-Known Member
Without a vaccine, the only way to achieve herd immunity is for 95% of the population to get COVID-19 and then (those who are still alive) recover from it so that our bodies develop antibodies. However, with a 4% mortality rate (currently) that strategy could cost 13 million Americans their lives.
Beasty
Well-Known Member
Once you account for hospitals filling up the rate will be over 10%. Look at Spain and Italy. Spain is at 10.5% and Italy is all the way up to 13%.
Keep entertaining stupidity.
andreboba
Well-Known Member
Because we don't have a VACCINE yet for COVID19. Why is that so hard to understand??
Without a vaccine, the best way to prevent the spread of the coronavirus is to self-isolate.
Tamiflu and Relenza were used to reduce the symptoms of H1N1, only ventilators so far can treat the worst symptoms of COVID19.
Obviously, the coronavirus is more lethal than the swine flu, so the only way to slow the spread is to self-isolate.
If H1N1 had the death rate of the coronavirus, over 2 million Americans would have died.
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Bliss
Well-Known Member
Could cost?
Where are you getting a 4% mortality rate??
It absolutely will not cost 13 million Americans lives. Where the heck are you getting these numbers from?
Are you modelling off of New York City? You can't use that as a national prediction.
Obviously, NYC needed to shutter, however most all other States (some who have never shuttered) do not have the numbers that New York City do.
And that's because they had an enormous influx of Chinese Nationals arriving to celebrate Chinese New Year. As well as European arrivals, who were infected by Chinese Nationals in Italy.
Most people are surviving the infection, so no, 13 million will not die.
Bliss
Well-Known Member
Slow the spread.. and then what?
Again, we're not preventing the spread, we are prolonging the virus in the community. 'Why is that so hard to understand??"
Isolation is prolonging the inevitable of INFECTIONS, it's not "killing the virus", only herd immunity can do that.
"Flattening the curve" was to allow hospitals to prepare for an influx of hospitalizations, if necessary.
Not killing it.
The virus is out there it hasn't gone anywhere, it's waiting for hosts, however healthy young people can fight the virus off, create the necessary herd immunity and destroy the virus, we simply cannot wait two years of self-isolation for a vaccine.
Thump
Well-Known Member
Well, it's called math. The total number of known infected in the United States as of April 15th is 613,187, The total death rate as of April 15th is 26,950. Now 26,950 is roughly 4.4% of 613,187. So that means the COVID-19 mortality rate is currently at 4.4%, so using that percentage on 95% of the 340 million Americans (the number you would need for herd immunity to work) we get just about 13 million people.
Now having said that, I personally believe the mortality rate will be lower when full-scale testing is done, but even if the mortality rate turns out to be 1% that would still be at least 3 million people who would likely die by attempting herd immunity without a vaccine.
And too @Beasty's point, the overwhelming of the health care system would raise the mortality rates even higher because people who would ordinarily survive will die because of inadequate care.
Beasty
Well-Known Member
They act like black people were the ones eating bats............
People need their "Satan"
"Say hi to the bad guy" ~ Tony Montana
Blacks who were racially profiled in China will get help leaving country
https://rollingout.com/2020/04/15/b...m-AFHZXAp0bdhnbV7J0qpWWnqp_ZQOy_CF2iR8g-J0NBw
People need their "Satan"
"Say hi to the bad guy" ~ Tony Montana
Blacks who were racially profiled in China will get help leaving country
https://rollingout.com/2020/04/15/b...m-AFHZXAp0bdhnbV7J0qpWWnqp_ZQOy_CF2iR8g-J0NBw
Peach State Scholar
Well-Known Member
Beasty
Well-Known Member
meowkittenmeow
Well-Known Member
This situation is about to last longer than a can of sportin waves.
Bookworm616
Well-Known Member
Interesting article and perspective.
"A lack of adequate testing means many of those who have been infected with the coronavirus will not appear in official statistics.
This suggests that many estimates for its mortality rate are much too high."
"Using patient data from China, public health officials initially estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases. The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. This matters because they do not appear in any of the official statistics.
Take, for example, a New Yorker who is mildly sick. She calls her family doctor who makes a clinical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 based on her symptoms, rather than with a test. Because she is not very sick, she is advised to stay home. There is no mechanism for her doctor to report her diagnosis to the health authorities, so if she gets better, she is never counted. Only if she becomes ill enough to be admitted to the hospital, or is tested, is she counted as a COVID-19 case. If she dies, she is counted as a COVID-19 death. If she survives, she will not be counted at all."
"We understand that the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced into a population. That means many of us in the general population may be or have already been infected with the virus - whether or not we have symptoms."
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020...1Qjw_W41yHK5gwIZlgT11TqWQ_dy8KiaVEXQ4O0abxpLQ
To paraphrase, likely most of us have already been exposed to the virus. This shelter-in-place needs to end soon.
"A lack of adequate testing means many of those who have been infected with the coronavirus will not appear in official statistics.
This suggests that many estimates for its mortality rate are much too high."
"Using patient data from China, public health officials initially estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases. The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. This matters because they do not appear in any of the official statistics.
Take, for example, a New Yorker who is mildly sick. She calls her family doctor who makes a clinical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 based on her symptoms, rather than with a test. Because she is not very sick, she is advised to stay home. There is no mechanism for her doctor to report her diagnosis to the health authorities, so if she gets better, she is never counted. Only if she becomes ill enough to be admitted to the hospital, or is tested, is she counted as a COVID-19 case. If she dies, she is counted as a COVID-19 death. If she survives, she will not be counted at all."
"We understand that the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced into a population. That means many of us in the general population may be or have already been infected with the virus - whether or not we have symptoms."
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020...1Qjw_W41yHK5gwIZlgT11TqWQ_dy8KiaVEXQ4O0abxpLQ
To paraphrase, likely most of us have already been exposed to the virus. This shelter-in-place needs to end soon.
Thump
Well-Known Member
But we don't actually know and that is the problem. Only full-scale testing can give us an accurate picture of this thing.
Bookworm616
Well-Known Member
And full scale testing is cost prohibitive.
The point of the article is: we may be freaking out over something that's not quite as bad as is being portrayed. How many people have knowingly and unknowingly already had it and never got tested? I'm all for this shelter-in-place extending through the end of April, but 100% extending it through mid to end of May is ridiculous. We all need to get back to our lives. People who are more vulnerable need to start protecting themselves.
We need to start phasing our lives back into more normal versions.
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