President Barack Obama Has 15-Point Lead Over McCain

Y'all, this is only the start -- Barack will win by a landslide in Nov.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465/page/1

The Kid Rasta 8)

 

Presidential races aren't generally won in landslides, 1988 was the last time an American candidate won lopsidedly. Plus national polls are meaningless, what matters are reliable polls from battleground states. The American presidency isn't won with the popular vote.

 

Don't take that poll too seriously. In fact, don't take that particular poll serious at all.

Apparently Newsweek used a really shady methodology of polling that's bound to get an inaccurate result of where the electorate really is. The poll questioned more Democrats than Republicans: 231 Republicans to 324 Democrats, plus 307 independents.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142469

By the way, 862 people is too small of a number of people polled in my opinion. I think the polls in presidential races should be based on a sample of least 2,000 people.

 

What matters are the battle ground states, the states that WILL win you the election!!!!!! Such as, FL, OH, WI, PA, MI, IA, NM, CO. Obama is leading in all 8 states according the RCP polls. However, its still too early to take any of these polls to seriously, but its a good start for Obama. Its sure as hell better than being behind in the polls.

 

Actually, it was '96, when Clinton had 379 electoral votes to Dole's 159 - however, Clinton lost the popular vote. But ulitmately, what you're hitting at is absolutely correct. Very few presidential elections are won by large margins. In the past three elections, only one has produced a victory with more than 100 electoral votes. And this year's is sure to be a nailbiter right to the wire, despite the polls and the electorate's lukewarm attitude towards Republicans.

More importantly, the road to #270 isn't as bumpy as it once was. Whilst Ohio and Florida remain the game changers that they once were, there are many more states that have a say this time such as Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire etc. I picked Colorado because it has 9 electoral votes, it's getting somewhat purple, especially in recent state elections. They have a Democratic governor, one Democratic U.S Senator and the DNC will hold their convention there, so they are sure to have some grassroots efforts there. Also, more than half of the state reside in the metropolitan areas such as Denver, Aurora and Boulder and these places vote Democratic.

Missouri is another key state. No Democrat has been elected without winning Missouri since 1936, it has one (popular) Democratic U.S Senator and a Democrat - Jay Nixon - is favored to win the gubernatorial election. If Obama invests a lot of efforts there, i don't see why Missouri, a state that voted for George W Bush twice, cannot switch to the blue side this time.

Virginia has been getting a lot of buzz too, because it has been trending Democratic in recent years. It has had a Democrat in Richmond since 2001. Like Missouri and Colorado, it has one Democratic U.S Senator and the open seat election is likely to be won by Mark Warner, a Democrat. The metropolitan areas in Northern Virginia have seen increases in their population and many of their counties have been voting Democratic even in years where Democrats have been blown away like the wind.

So right now, i don't pay much mind towards the polls because quite frankly, polls are like women in their periods - they act differently depending on how they feel. Depending on the most pressing issue, one candidate will have the clear lead. Obviously, gas prices, Iraq and the economy have been the dominant themes and the electorate prefers a Democrat after the eight disastrous years of Republican "leadership" we've had. What's more, the challenger always starts with the lead in most races.

But all in all, Obama looks to have a good summer.

 

Y'all, I stand behind my prediction. Barack Obama is a game changer. This election won't be like any election in the history of this country.

The Kid Rasta 8)

 

So true. People shouldn't forget the Bradley factor. :wink:

 

The Obama factor will rewrite American history.

The Kid Rasta 8)

 

Can anyone please explain what a battleground state is?

 

In America, we have a system that calculates votes according to what is called the electoral college. Every state, depending on the number of members it has in Congress, is allocated a specific number of electoral college votes. Every state has two senators but its number of representatives in Congress is determined by its overall population.

California, my state, has the largest population of any state in the union, which gives it the minimum of two senators and 53 congressional representatives for a total of 55 electoral college votes. Alaska, by contrast, has two senators and only one congressional representative which totals out to 3 electoral college votes.

A battleground state is one where the electoral college votes can go either way to the Democratic or Republican candidate in an election year. Depending on the prevailing winds, the likeability of the respective candidates and political makeup of the population, certain states like Ohio, Florida and Michigan may be won by either candidate.

To use an analogy, think of two soccer teams that play 10 times on a neutral field with each team winning 5 of the 10 matchups. Given that they're evenly matched on a neutral playing field, there is an uncertainty as to who would win an 11th game?

 

Here's another poll which shows Barack leading McCain by 12 points.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story

Y'all doubters need to reconcile with the fact that discounting any unforseen disaster, America will elect it's first African American as president in Nov.

The Kid Rasta 8)

 

This is the key phrase.