Report:45 percent of America’s occupations will be automated within the next 20 y

Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization

Oxford researchers say that 45 percent of America’s occupations will be automated within the next 20 years.

Rapid advances in technology have long represented a serious potential threat to many jobs ordinarily performed by people.

A recent report (which is not online, but summarized here) from the Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology attempts to quantify the extent of that threat. It concludes that 45 percent of American jobs are at high risk of being taken by computers within the next two decades.

The authors believe this takeover will happen in two stages. First, computers will start replacing people in especially vulnerable fields like transportation/logistics, production labor, and administrative support. Jobs in services, sales, and construction may also be lost in this first stage. Then, the rate of replacement will slow down due to bottlenecks in harder-to-automate fields such engineering. This “technological plateau” will be followed by a second wave of computerization, dependent upon the development of good artificial intelligence. This could next put jobs in management, science and engineering, and the arts at risk.

The authors note that the rate of computerization depends on several other factors, including regulation of new technology and access to cheap labor.

These results were calculated with a common statistical modeling method. More than 700 jobs on O*Net, an online career network, were considered, as well as the skills and education required for each. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerization.

“Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerization—i.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence,” the authors write. “For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.”

http://www.technologyreview.com/vie...of-us-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-computerization/

 

Robot hookers ftw!

But seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if we have some kind of robot doctors in our lifetime. A lot of medical stuff is just matching symptoms to treatment and that is pretty easy for a computer to do.

 

If I could go back to 2005, I could find an article talking about how good the economy is going to be.

 

Been worried about this for months. Its really scary and I don't see how it'll get better. I pray I am just overreacting but unfortunately I don't think I am.

 

the jobs that won't be computerized will be mexicanized..... by the corporations and politicians that will keep them pouring in.

America will SOON by a spanish speaking Bangladesh.

Everything that is ours today will be their's tomorrow be you white black asian or whatever.

 

Flame, you are right on the mark. But, nobody will listen. I have been reading books like Future Shock, MegaTrends, PowerShift, and the End of Work that came out years ago and predicted what we are seeing. President Obama said so himself today on the ABC "This Week" that the two most powerful trends hurting American workers are "Globalization" and "Automation" of smart machines that are reducing available work to workers and it will only accelerate. The rise of the brillant machines are just a tip of the coming iceberg of change that most americans have not a clue on what is coming in artificial intelligence from the toaster to manufacturing factories. If I was an employer who would I hire? An expensive worker laden with all the cost of benefits, health care and dubious productivity? Or smart machines (like in some McDonald's that can flip burgers) and or very cheap immigrant workers who are willing to work the menial and dirty jobs at so much less to me. Of course many employers are moving in the direction of automation and cheap labor be it here or around the world. Now that California will pass a bill allowing illegals to have drivers license, practice law, etc.. I'm not surprise about anything in this country anymore that is committing it's own suicide. I feel for the American worker. Something dramatic is going to have to happen that will finally awaken them away from their televisions, games, porn, and sports.

 

Thanks, North. Going to read the article and summary before I study. Thanks for posting.

 

At the same time these companies know that the more complex their systems become. The more it is going to cost them to maintain and get fixed when they break. With upper end technology comes the need for all the special tools and or test equipment, and specialized expertise to troubleshoot and maintain it. The people that continue to build on their knowledge will have enough time to be very prepared for the changes in the overall economy.

 

No matter who is in the White house the southern border will remain WIDE OPEN.

Colin Powell said this on C-span

"As far as I and my colleagues are concerned....there is no southern border"

We've been sold out people....white...black...asian...whatever....thrown under the bus and utterly betrayed.


I bet if mexico were a white country Black leaders would be screaming from the rooftops...

We are told they are "persons of color" and America will be a brown/black majority...but what we aren't told is that mexicans are so Anti-black they ally themselves with the Aryan brotherhood..

If anybody cares to know what a brown/black majority looks like....look no further than Columbia or Cuba.....lol...

THAT is Black america's future.........Columbia...:smt042

 

You mean like webMD?

 

Yeah, kind of, but more tactile. Pretty much like the medical droid from Star Wars. Or the hologram Doctor from Star Trek Voyager

​

 

The question now is what are the plans for all the unemployed?

Not everybody can be a technician working on the systems or working upstairs in the big office.

 

Mass killings. Welcome to the holocaust 2.0 where the justification will be about not having enough resources to go around and if you can't pay for them you shouldn't be allowed to live. Humans are insanely cruel, we in the Western world think we are some how better but that's because conditions have been favorable but let shit get hard and we'll make what Germany did to the Jews look like a walk in the park. We have more than enough to make everyone's life far better than it is but unfortunately those in control would rather watch the world burn before sharing anything.

 

It is going to take large capital outlays in order to make huge technological changes, all the while keeping cash on reserve for maintenance. Would you as a CEO make such a capital outlay if you thought the markets you served were going to shrink due to people loosing their jobs. By the time every major firm is on board it is likely that you will already have things figured out for yourself, whether you are a technical person or not. Secondly I think you underestimate how many technicians it is going to take to keep things in order. You are going to have your team of troubleshooters that come to work everyday and you will still need a contract with an outside firm for when shit hits the fan to advise your techies as well as share test equipment. Either that or you can calibrate all your own test equipment and pay your guys by the hour because only management is going to be willing to work 18+ hours a day doing extensive troubleshooting.

Most people would rather the company's controller to be a human instead of a robot. I promise. :smt043

 

Beasty real talk I love your optimism and rationale. People like you give me hope big homie. Thank you for that.

 

We can change it all just by staying out the mall.

Votes don't mean shi.t when the candidates have the same sponsors.

Since the banks and big business own the government the best thing to do is stop being suckers.

Simply by not being so materialistic...greedy...petty..and trilfing..we can take our governent back from Wall Street.

Don't buy new cars..

Get one on the rebound with low mileage that's a couple years old..let some other chump take the hit.

Warren Buffet has never bought a brand new car..with all his money he just refuses to do something that stupid.

If the richest guy in the world doesn't buy new cars that should tell you something.

Buy classic/vintage rides....something you can sell down the road and still get your money back...or more...something you can fix yourself if need be.

Vintage cars and motorcycles are good places to put your money...so is art and vintage instruments.

 

I agree but the sheep love their ipads and Starbucks and reality tv.

 

Back in my college days, I would skip classes occasionally to go down to the Longshoreman’s union hall on the boat docks to make some money for the day......I would leave the pristine atmosphere of the university to get down in the hull of a ship with grown men to do 8 hours of manual labor in loading the cargo compartments with fertilizer, fruit, frozen meat or other goods......the days work money was very good to me as college boy, but it was the life line of sustenance for these men. These were union men and this work was their life..........
………...Over the stretch of 15 years however, ALL of this manual work has been replaced by automatic machinery, the positions eliminated and the men with family and mortgages displaced........what ever needs mandated hands on humans, grateful anxious Mexicans immigrants were been brought in at a fraction of the former union wage to fulfill the needs.......So to some degree, you are all correct in some regard your various arguments........Like a something out of a science fiction novel, the trend of the future appears troubling........In closing, If the decision is to stay on the safe side of the law, it must be seen as practical to be willing to retrain and to relocate to find suitable employment.........

 

Thats whats up